1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 165.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 165.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.2S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 165.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME
INDICATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 082244Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE AND
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS IS BASED ON WEAKENING CONVECTION AND DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T4.5 AND T5.0 (77 TO 90 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST(28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 12P
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY UNTIL TAU 24
WHEN INCREASING VWS BEGINS TO WEAKEN IT MORE RAPIDLY. BY TAU 36, TC
12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND AFUM WHICH SUGGEST A MORE EASTWARD TRACK FROM
TAU 36 TO 72. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ITS PERSISTENT
LACK OF MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01812_5day.gif