1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 166.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.9S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.8S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12P CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
PARTIAL 091112Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS BUT CONTINUES ALONG A WEAKENING TREND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 090746Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 12P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
AS TC 12P CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
UNFAVORABLE VWS (UP TO 90 KNOTS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BY TAU 36,
TC 12P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 48 AS VWS DRASTICALLY INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
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