1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 169.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.5S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THERE IS WAVERING CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE DECOUPLING OF THE BULK CONVECTION FROM
THE LOWER LEVELS. A 092036Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS THE PREVIOUS EYE
FEATURE NOW NEARLY UNRECOGNIZABLE WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
80 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE HEDGING ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY JET INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE RELATIVELY WARM NEAR 27C DEGREES BUT
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY POLEWARD OF 28 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 12P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EDGE OF THE STR BY TAU 24.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR FROM THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24
TC 12P WILL TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL COLD CORE SYSTEM. TC 12P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
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