1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 28.7S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) AND A 102205 METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF 50-
55 KNOTS WITH AN LLCC BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM
DUE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND DECREASING RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES
ITS POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND WILL COMPLETE ETT IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 28 FEET.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01812_5day.gif