1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 81.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.7S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1475 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED AND PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 061151Z 37 GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH TC 07S IS TRACKING IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VWS AND COOL SSTS (26 C), A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN
EXTENSION OF THE NER TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE NER
IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE AND THE STR BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 07S WESTWARD. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU
36, POSSIBLY SOONER. CONCURRENTLY, TC CEBILE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN, LENDING AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
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