WTIO31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 8.3N 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 9.0N 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.7N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.6N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.8N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.7N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 76.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 922 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 03B. THE PREVIOUSLY-OBSERVED DOUBLE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMA HAS EVOLVED INTO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KNOTS ACCORDING TO A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAKS RANGING FROM T2.5 AND
T3.0. TS 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER TS 03B (10 TO 15
KNOTS), SO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS ACROSS A BAND OF EXTREMELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 DEGREES C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
BEYOND TAU 72, TS 03B IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA. THE INTENSITY OF TS 03B SHOULD PEAK AROUND
TAU 96, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH
THE TROUGH INTERACTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF, WHICH IS A
FAR WESTERN OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.
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