1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.8S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.8S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.4S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A 062159Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 061658Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND SUB-TROPICAL CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DISSIPATION,
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE 50 KNOT INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (>30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY TC 07S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE NER WILL BE REPLACED AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE BY A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND TRACK
SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ALONG TRACK SSTS DROP
AND VWS INCREASES, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A SYSTEM WITH
AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND AN ASYMMETRIC PROFILE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z.
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