1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY SMALL, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 6 NM INNER EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. 291346Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES
AT 36 AND 39 GHZ INDICATED THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC), WITH THE COMPACT 6 NM INNER EYE SURROUNDED BY A 65 NM
OUTER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS IN
LIGHT OF THE ONGOING ERC AS WELL AS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD, WHILE TRANSITING IN AN AREA OF A HIGH SSTS OF 28-29
DEG CELSIUS). TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A
DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR TO THE
SOUTH, ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS
INDICATE A TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE THE NVGM AND COTC
MODELS SHOW A TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS WELL TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST
IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AND WELL WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A NEAR-
TERM RECURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS
UNDERGOING AN ERC, LEADING TO SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CEBILE
WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LITTLE TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER
THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL ERC'S.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif