1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 76.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.5S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.3S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.4S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 76.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 681 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 021642Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION SITUATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND A 27 NM EYE,
LIKELY RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TURNING INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24. LOW, BUT
INCREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD
ENABLE TC 07S TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STEADIER WEAKENING TREND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 AS
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE. DESPITE SOME SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
RANGE, NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
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