1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.9S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 081222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS
AND A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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