1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 162.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.7S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.7S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 39.3S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR
THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI, AND SUPPORTED
BY A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES, WHICH ALSO PROVIDED UPDATED WIND
RADII INFORMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW USING SHEAR
METHOD, AS WELL AS A T3.0 FROM NFFN, AND IS SUPPORTED BY ASCAT DATA,
SATCON ESTIMATED 55 KTS, MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS 49 KNOTS, AND
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STILL HIGH, BUT HAS MODERATED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO ROBUST. TC FEHI IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF VWS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 08P MAY
DISSIPATE AS A CLOSED LOW PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD;
HOWEVER, MOST MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE
INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 45 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL HIGHER VWS VALUES RESUME AND SST VALUES BECOME MARGINAL.
BY TAU 36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU
72, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY
DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENERGY CONVERSION AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z,
292100Z, AND 300300Z.
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