WTIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.2N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.3N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.9N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.4N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.8N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 959 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A 21NM EYE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH THE INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 012257Z SSMSI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING
THE RELATIVELY LARGE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM PGTW HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
TC 03B LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS), BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR
REMAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, LEADING TO LOW RELATIVE
SHEAR VALUES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, AS THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A DIVERGENT PATTERN, PROVIDING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEST,
AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER A BAND OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. BY TAU 48, TC
03B WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, AS UPPER LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SMOTHERS THE OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN INDIA AS A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE FULLY DISSIPATING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, WITH
THE EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATING COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 WITH
THE REMNANTS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE US MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AS A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT MOVED FURTHER LEFT IN
LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL DISSIPATION SCENARIO. OVERALL THERE IS STILL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
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