WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.4S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION IS
BASED ON A 031031Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OFTHE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
030614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER AND WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR
TC 03S TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC 03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
THEN SOUTHWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z,
040900Z AND 041500Z.
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