1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.8S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU-
B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
INCORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION MENTIONED IN REMARKS
SECTION.
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