1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA IS NOW STRADDLING THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 070003Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL
TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC
03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif