1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.3S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 28.4S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061200Z METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
TURN TC 03S EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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