1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.8S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 080426Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A 080614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
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