1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH
A BROADENED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS WIDENED TO OVER 50 NM AFTER AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EYE
FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A 292200Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A
SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THE PREVIOUS
EYEWALL, WHICH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS THOUGH THE CYCLONE PROBABLY REACHED A MINIMUM
OF AROUND 95 KNOTS BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES DUE TO THE ERC. NOW THAT
THE ERC IS COMPLETE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
BACK TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
CEBILE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S REMAINS COCOONED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE LYING TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN OF COMPETING RIDGES IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD, DRAGGING TC 07S ALONG WITH IT. TC CEBILE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE U.S. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 NEAR THE 75E
LONGITUDE LINE, WHILE THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
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