WTIO31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 9.9N 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.2N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.4N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.7N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.1N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.4N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1024 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A 15NM RAGGED EYE
FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE SYSTEM EYE AND A PARTIAL 020626Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A RING
OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A 020301Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
86 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM CENTER WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU
24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER
AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM
AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER.
TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z.
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