WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.3N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.8N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.5N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OCKHI IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 040120Z
F18 91GHZ PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, WITH DEEPEST
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE PGTW FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KNOTS
BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DATA-T VALUES WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO T4.0. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES, CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO
BE 25-30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
INDICATES DRIER AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO OCKHI. TC 03B IS
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, WITH THE 04/00Z
POSITION INDICATING MOTION HAS VEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
PRIOR POSIT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, INDICATING OCKHI WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AFTER TAU 48. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER WATERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC 03B OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING OCKHI WILL DISSIPATE
OVER WATER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR ONE
ADDITIONAL POSIT TO INDICATE THE APPROXIMATE LANDFALL POSITION OF
THE REMNANT LOW. BASED ON LOW MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.
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