1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
311018Z INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. TC
18P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUECE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P, STEERING IT ON A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK. TC 18P IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BUT TRANSITIONS INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
310230).
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