1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 79.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1219 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH A MASS OF DISSIPATING CONVECTION SHEARED HEAVILY TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 072146Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
THAT A LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY BROADENED
AND ERODED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE STEADY
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN CONVECTIVE AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE,
SUPPORTED BY A 071932Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE
TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING OVER 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS AND IS TRACKING DIRECTLY
INTO THE SHEAR, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS
THAN 1C) AS 07S CONTINUES WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS
EXHIBITING SOME SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY
ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
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