1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 161.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 161.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.1S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.4S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.2S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 33.0S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 42.3S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
425 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND RAGGED AS IT ACCELERATED
POLEWARD, AS IT STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON AN ELONGATED LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE WITH A SHALLOW FORMATIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 72,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WIND FIELD. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AND TRANSFORM INTO A
COLD CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01808_5day.gif