1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.1S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.8S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 80.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN
SIDE. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 041000Z INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE HAS OCCURRED. A 041109Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE, SO THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLEAR
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AND
IS DOWN TO 60 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS)
INFLUENCED BY A 041031Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 68
KNOTS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE EXTENSION OF THIS STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 07S, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS A SHARP
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, CALLING FOR
DISSIPATION SOME TIME AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE
NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
ADDED STORM STATE AS DISSIPATING AND DISSIPATED AT TAU 72 AND 96,
RESPECTIVELY.
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