1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 76.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A
022331Z GMI IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE
MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO THE SOUTH AND SPINS DOWN SLOWLY. DESPITE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES, NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
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