1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.3S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE EARLY STAGE OF EYE FORMATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NEARLY CLOSED
OFF MICROWAVE EYE IN AN 182306Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND A SIMILAR CYAN
RING FEATURE OBSERVED AN 182208 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE SSMIS IMAGE,
INDICATIVE OF NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5
(55 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 182203Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A 6 MB DROP IN MSLP TO 998 MB
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) WITH SIGNIFICANT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 48.
TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT POLEWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S INTO
COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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