1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.2S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SPIRAL BANDING WITH DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S RECENTLY UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY
AN AREA OF WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINING OBSERVED IN A 222300Z
91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWING THE NEWLY FORMED OUTER RING OF
CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.5 TO T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE THE
SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO
VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD AND INTO COOLER WATERS TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TC
15S APPROACHES THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 15S
WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01815_5day.gif