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Old 2nd September 2019, 19:12
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pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 37
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc mon sep 02 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of florida to the flagler/volusia county line.

The storm surge watch has been extended northward along the georgia
coast to the savannah river.

The hurricane warning along the east coast of florida has been
extended northward to the flagler/volusia county line.

The hurricane watch has been extended northward to altamaha sound
georgia.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* lantana to the flagler/volusia county line

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to south of lantana
* flagler/volusia county line to the savannah river

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet to the flagler/volusia county line

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to jupiter inlet
* flagler/volusia county line to the altamaha sound georgia

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to jupiter inlet

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* north of golden beach to deerfield beach
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the united states
should continue to monitor the progress of dorian...as additional
watches may be required later today.

Hurricane center located near 26.8n 78.3w at 02/1500z
position accurate within 10 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 1 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 922 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt....... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt.......120ne 110se 80sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 120se 90sw 210nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.8n 78.3w at 02/1500z
at 02/1200z center was located near 26.7n 78.2w

forecast valid 03/0000z 26.9n 78.7w
max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 27.2n 79.1w
max wind 125 kt...gusts 150 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 28.1n 79.6w
max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.3n 80.2w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 32.0n 79.4w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 150se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 06/1200z 35.4n 75.1w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 07/1200z 40.7n 66.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.8n 78.3w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 02/1800z

next advisory at 02/2100z
__________________
David