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Old 3rd September 2019, 08:02
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pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 39...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc tue sep 03 2019

correction to changes in watches and warnings and the storm surge
watch and warning area

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward from altamaha
sound to the savannah river.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* lantana fl to savannah river

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to south of lantana fl
* savannah river to south santee river sc

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to south santee river sc

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* north of golden beach fl to deerfield beach fl
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the southeast and
mid-atlantic coast of the united states should continue to monitor
the progress of dorian...as additional watches may be required
tonight and tuesday.

Hurricane center located near 26.9n 78.5w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 10 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 0 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 946 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 30se 25sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt.......130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 90se 120sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.9n 78.5w at 03/0300z
at 03/0000z center was located near 26.8n 78.4w

forecast valid 03/1200z 27.1n 78.7w
max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 27.9n 79.1w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.2n 79.7w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.6n 79.7w
max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 33.7n 77.3w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...170ne 170se 130sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 07/0000z 38.0n 71.0w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Outlook valid 08/0000z 45.4n 61.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.9n 78.5w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 03/0600z

next advisory at 03/0900z
__________________
David