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Old 3rd September 2019, 21:05
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pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 41
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc tue sep 03 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward to south santee
river south carolina.

The storm surge watch has been extended northward to cape
lookout north carolina.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the coast of south carolina
from north of edisto beach to the south santee river.

A hurricane watch has been issued from north of south santee river
to duck north carolina including the pamlico and albemarle sounds.

The tropical storm warning has been extended north to edisto
beach south carolina.

The storm surge warning has been discontinued south of jupiter
inlet florida.

The storm surge watch has been discontinued south of lantana florida
has been discontinued.

The hurricane watch from deerfield beach to jupiter inlet has
been discontinued.

The tropical storm watch from golden beach to deerfield beach has
been discontinued.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* jupiter inlet fl to south santee river sc

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of south santee river sc to cape lookout nc

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl
* north of edisto beach sc to south santee river sc

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to edisto beach sc
* north of south santee river sc to duck nc
* albemarle and pamlico sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to edisto beach sc

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For
a depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-atlantic coasts of
the united states should continue to monitor the progress of
dorian...as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

Hurricane center located near 27.1n 78.6w at 03/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 2 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 955 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 40se 25sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt.......150ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 120se 100sw 270nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.1n 78.6w at 03/1500z
at 03/1200z center was located near 27.1n 78.4w

forecast valid 04/0000z 27.9n 79.0w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 90sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.2n 79.4w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 45se 30sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 90sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.7n 79.8w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 32.1n 79.2w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 35.3n 75.0w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 140sw 120nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 07/1200z 40.5n 66.5w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 08/1200z 48.0n 57.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.1n 78.6w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 03/1800z

next advisory at 03/2100z
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David