View Single Post
  #7  
Old 4th September 2019, 07:59
pompeyfan's Avatar
pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: Isle of Wight
Posts: 1,187
Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 43
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc wed sep 04 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge watch has been extended northward from
duck nc to poquoson va...including hampton roads.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* jupiter inlet fl to surf city nc

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of surf city nc to poquoson va...including hampton roads
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* sebastian inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl
* north of savannah river to surf city nc

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to savannah river
* north of surf city nc to the north carolina/virginia border
* albemarle and pamlico sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to savannah river
* jupiter inlet fl to sebastian inlet fl

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the north carolina/virginia border to chincoteague va
* chesapeake bay from smith point southward

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction
of areas at risk...please see the national weather service storm
surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic coast of the united
states should continue to monitor the progress of dorian...as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
wednesday.

Hurricane center located near 28.4n 79.0w at 04/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 959 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 40se 30sw 50nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 70se 50sw 90nw.
34 kt.......150ne 130se 100sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..240ne 150se 120sw 240nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.4n 79.0w at 04/0300z
at 04/0000z center was located near 28.1n 78.8w

forecast valid 04/1200z 29.4n 79.6w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 90ne 70se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.7n 79.9w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 80nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 100sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 31.9n 79.5w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 110sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 33.3n 78.2w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 160se 120sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 37.1n 72.1w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 80sw 70nw.
34 kt...200ne 200se 140sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 08/0000z 43.3n 62.7w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 09/0000z 51.5n 52.2w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.4n 79.0w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 04/0600z

next advisory at 04/0900z
__________________
David