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Old 5th September 2019, 21:41
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pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 49
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc thu sep 05 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been extended northward to fenwick
island delaware...and also extended northward in the chesapeake
bay to drum point...including the tidal potomac river south of cobb
island.

The storm surge warning has been discontinued south of edisto
beach south carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* edisto beach sc to poquoson va
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers
* hampton roads

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* savannah river to the north carolina/virginia border
* pamlico and albemarle sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north carolina/virginia border to fenwick island de
* chesapeake bay from drum point southward
* tidal potomac south of cobb island
* altamaha sound ga to savannah river

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the coastline...
During the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather service
storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states...and atlantic canada...should continue to monitor
the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 32.5n 79.1w at 05/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 20 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 958 mb
eye diameter 40 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt.......170ne 150se 90sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..270ne 270se 150sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 32.5n 79.1w at 05/1500z
at 05/1200z center was located near 32.1n 79.2w

forecast valid 06/0000z 33.5n 78.0w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 50nw.
34 kt...170ne 150se 90sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 35.1n 75.8w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 160se 110sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 37.2n 72.4w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 170se 120sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 40.1n 68.0w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 150sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 48.0n 59.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 80sw 80nw.
34 kt...270ne 270se 200sw 180nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1200z 54.5n 48.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1200z 59.5n 32.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.5n 79.1w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 05/1800z

next advisory at 05/2100z
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David