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Old 6th September 2019, 22:25
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pompeyfan United Kingdom pompeyfan is offline
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 53
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc fri sep 06 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

A tropical storm warning is now in effect east of bar
harbor maine...to eastport maine.

The hurricane warning has been discontinued west of bogue
inlet north carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* salter path nc to poquoson va
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers
* hampton roads

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* bogue inlet to the north carolina/virginia border
* pamlico and albemarle sounds

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* nova scotia

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north carolina/virginia border to fenwick island de
* chesapeake bay from drum point southward
* tidal potomac south of cobb island
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma
* east of bar harbor to eastport me

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands
* fundy national park to shediac
* francois to boat harbour

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the coastline...
During the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather service
storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states should monitor the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 35.7n 74.8w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 15 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 957 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 40se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 80se 70sw 70nw.
34 kt.......170ne 190se 140sw 110nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 400se 270sw 50nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 35.7n 74.8w at 06/1500z
at 06/1200z center was located near 35.1n 75.7w

forecast valid 07/0000z 37.4n 72.2w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 40se 40sw 30nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 70nw.
34 kt...180ne 200se 140sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 40.7n 67.7w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 50se 50sw 30nw.
50 kt...100ne 100se 90sw 80nw.
34 kt...200ne 220se 150sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 44.9n 63.5w...inland
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
50 kt...120ne 120se 110sw 100nw.
34 kt...220ne 240se 180sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 48.8n 60.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 100nw.
34 kt...240ne 240se 240sw 170nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 54.5n 48.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...270ne 270se 270sw 240nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 10/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 35.7n 74.8w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 06/1800z

next advisory at 06/2100z
__________________
David