1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 81.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.2S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.4S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.8S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.9S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1083 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER
30 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST AMSU
CROSS SECTION FROM 050200Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO
T3.0 (30 TO 45 KNOTS). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 050312Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWING SEVERAL 50 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW BEING STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
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