1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 232101Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9. TC 15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN A HIGH VWS
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC MARCUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
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