1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.3S 163.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 163.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.7S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 23 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 35.1S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 163.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT WAS LATER COVERED
BY FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE POLEWARD END OF AN ACTIVE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP, AND SUPPORTED BY A 281119Z AMSU 89 GHZ
IMAGE. CONVECTION HAS FLARED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS
ONLY AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE PGTW 281200Z 2.5/3.0 FIX AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STRONG
(OVER 25 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL (26-27
DEGREES C) PREVENTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ROBUST OUTFLOW STILL
PROVIDES STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THE SYSTEM. TC FEHI IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FEHI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 40 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AROUND TAU 30-36, TC 08P WILL BEGIN EXTRA
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ETT WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 48,
AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY AS A
COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND EXPAND ITS WIND FIELD AS IT ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
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