1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 28.1S 163.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 163.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 32.1S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 163.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND A LARGE COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POLEWARD AND
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY
A 301057Z MMHS 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED BUT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED
ON A PARTIAL 301058Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD REGION 30-
35 KNOTS EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF 40 KNOT WINDS
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS
AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (25 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL
CROSS SECTION FROM 300900Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING FROM AN
ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE TO A COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. TC FEHI WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU
12. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22 FEET.
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