1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 123.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.8S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.3S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.4S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS ASSESSED THAT DESPITE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05S BEING LOCATED OVER
LAND, INTENSIFICATION TO BASIN WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER
THEREFORE JUSTIFYING THE ISSUE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 092255Z
89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC AND ALSO SHOWS WEAK BANDING LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL AND THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY ANIMATED RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
SHOWING 25 TO 27 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND ONCE IT
TRACKS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WEST OF AUSTRALIA, IT WILL BE IN AN
AREA OF VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 05S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS, EXITING
OVER WATER AROUND TAU 6. ONCE OVER WATER THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY. THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 36. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN,
MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 DUE TO
HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OVERLAND TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, VARYING ON THE SPEED OF THE TURN MEANING THAT SOME MODELS
HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING ENTIRELY OVERLAND WHILE OTHERS TRACK
FARTHER WEST OVER WATER. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA)
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
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