1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE
WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE.
CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS
BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM.
A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF
IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC
AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND
T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9
(112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING
FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS
PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING
TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN
THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR
TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO
HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A
SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE.
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