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#1
31st March 2018, 21:09
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Josie - South Pacific
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 175.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 175.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.2S 177.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.9S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.5S 179.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.5S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.8S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.4S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.7S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 311018Z INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. TC 18P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUECE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P, STEERING IT ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. TC 18P IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, BUT TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 310230). https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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#2
1st April 2018, 09:16
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.0S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.0S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.2S 178.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.2S 174.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.2S 172.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010001Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE KNES AND PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO T3.0 (45 KTS) 00Z FIX, AND IS HEDGED BELOW A 311811Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, SOME MODELS EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF TC 18P AND BRIEFLY PUSH ITS TRACK MORE POLEWARD. TC 18P IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY, SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WHILE MAINTAINING A WARM CORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE NER TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES LEAD TO SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE DEVELOPING IN THE LATER TAUS AS SOME MODELS PUSH THE TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD, AND OTHER MODELS DO NOT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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#3
1st April 2018, 18:27
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 177.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 177.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.8S 178.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.0S 178.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.5S 179.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.7S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 26.7S 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011321Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED CENTER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GPM IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 30-45 KNOTS, WITH AUTOMATED ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDING 40 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND PROVIDING HIGH (30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, ROBUST OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS PARTIALLY COMPENSATING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. JOSIE IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. FORECAST INTENSITIES REFLECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS OUTFLOW PARTIALLY OFFSETS THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 18P WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER TAU 48 AS THERMAL ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INCREASING VWS TO FINALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER WATER, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER THE SUB- TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF DISSIPATION, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO MAY PREVAIL. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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#4
2nd April 2018, 08:14
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.4S 179.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 25.5S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 28.1S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST, OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011855Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 012149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING PATCHES OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH, WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE SOUTH 75NM REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ABOVE THE 010000Z PGTW FIX OF CURRENT INTENSITY T2.0 (30 KTS), BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT KNES AND NFFN FIXES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MODERATE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST PREDICTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER TC 18P AND THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPANDED, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WARM CORE BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, THUS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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#5
2nd April 2018, 13:23
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 24.6S 179.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.8S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.4S 175.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 178.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18P HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 020600Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 18P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 18P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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#6
3rd April 2018, 07:57
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 179.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 179.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.7S 179.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.6S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.5S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 435 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.0S 174.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 179.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLI-SPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 022129Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED 40 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRAT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 17P IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO DISPLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE 18P TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 12 AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01818_5day.gif
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David |
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