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#1
27th January 2018, 08:22
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Cebile - Indian Ocean
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION COVERING UP A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 262147Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL 261633Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CONVECTIVE MASS WITH FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL SHEAR ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT TAU 24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 07S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120. PAST TAU 96, TC 07S WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260130). https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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#2
27th January 2018, 09:38
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#3
27th January 2018, 22:33
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SYMMETRICALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07S, WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION IS DETERMINED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS WELL AS A 271611Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEGREES C, WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) THAT IS DECREASING ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST, BUT IS GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AS THE VWS DECREASES, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS WHILE BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO ITS SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE COMPLICATED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, BUT GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS TURNS TC 07S TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GREATER SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#4
28th January 2018, 07:27
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 272224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF TC 07S HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY-STATE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND GIVEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DECREASES IN THE COMING DAY. THE SYSTEM TOOK AN UNEXPECTED JOG TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 96, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT DIVERGE GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, SO THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#5
28th January 2018, 08:38
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WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRELUDE TO AN EYE AS IT RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMBIGUITY PRODUCT DERIVED FROM A BULLSEYE 280415Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY IMPROVED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND WAS ENHANCED BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 105 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE MID TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#6
28th January 2018, 18:25
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WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS CAUSING THE EYE TO BE TILTED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 181101Z SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE STR TO THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TO MID TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#7
29th January 2018, 07:15
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WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS STALLED OR ENDED, AS THE EYE FILLED. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EYE MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM. A 290040Z GPM 89 GHZ PASS STILL SHOWS A PIN-HOLE MICROWAVE EYE WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES REMAIN T6.0, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADATION OF CORE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS); HOWEVER, OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE WANING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS CEBILE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 110-115 KNOTS BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS OCEANIC SUPPORT BEGINS TO DROP. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SLOWING FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE UKMET MODELS INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS PLACED WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED FURTHER WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-FURCATION IN DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND 300300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#8
29th January 2018, 13:47
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 81.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 81.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.2S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.4S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.5S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.0S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.9S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.2S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 81.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AND A COMPACT, ALBEIT, VERY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 291048Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T6.0 AND T5.5, RESPECTIVELY, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVES TC 07S TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECURVATURE WITH JGSM AND AFUM GOING FOR AN EARLY RECURVATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JGSM AND AFUM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#9
29th January 2018, 22:01
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A VERY SMALL, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 6 NM INNER EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. 291346Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES AT 36 AND 39 GHZ INDICATED THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH THE COMPACT 6 NM INNER EYE SURROUNDED BY A 65 NM OUTER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING ERC AS WELL AS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DEEP MOISTURE FIELD, WHILE TRANSITING IN AN AREA OF A HIGH SSTS OF 28-29 DEG CELSIUS). TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS INDICATE A TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE THE NVGM AND COTC MODELS SHOW A TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS WELL TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AND WELL WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A NEAR- TERM RECURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS UNDERGOING AN ERC, LEADING TO SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CEBILE WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LITTLE TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL ERC'S. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#10
30th January 2018, 07:51
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A BROADENED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS WIDENED TO OVER 50 NM AFTER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A 292200Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL, WHICH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS THOUGH THE CYCLONE PROBABLY REACHED A MINIMUM OF AROUND 95 KNOTS BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES DUE TO THE ERC. NOW THAT THE ERC IS COMPLETE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN BACK TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S REMAINS COCOONED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE LYING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN OF COMPETING RIDGES IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD, DRAGGING TC 07S ALONG WITH IT. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE U.S. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 NEAR THE 75E LONGITUDE LINE, WHILE THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#11
30th January 2018, 13:02
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. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 60NM EYE FEATURE WITH SYMMETRICAL RADIAL BANDING CONVERGING INTO THE STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER COMPLETION OF A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RESULTANT WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING STEERING AND SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER EARLIER WITH A RESULTANT TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST HAPPENING SOONER. THE REMAINING MODELS IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW A PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#12
30th January 2018, 20:37
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASSIVE EYE NEARLY 60NM ACROSS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT THE EYE DIAMETER WOULD HAVE DECREASED AFTER COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) YESTERDAY BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY WIDE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN. A 301647Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE, COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (102 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINMENT AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATELY HIGH OHC VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DUE TO A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S LIES IN A COL AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENTIRE RIDGE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 07S TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NER REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FACTOR, LEADING TC 07S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S TRANSITS THROUGH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KNOTS WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ERC. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72, IT WILL UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES COOLER WATERS, VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW SHIFTS TO A SINGLE CHANNEL. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#13
31st January 2018, 07:42
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE. CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM. A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#14
31st January 2018, 10:30
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE EYE SIZE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOUT 30NM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE DIAMETER AND HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) THAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO A NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A 5 KNOT DECREASE BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE SLIGHT VWS IMPACT AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN SPELLS A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#15
31st January 2018, 20:55
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. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS. TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#16
1st February 2018, 07:35
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPENING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR 25 NM EYE, EVIDENT IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, REFLECTS A RENEWED INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY EASTWARD AND POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW, NEAR- EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 07S TRACKS OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE. SUBSEQUENTLY, SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE OCEAN SURFACE POTENTIALLY COOLS A BIT DUE TO UPWELLING INDUCED BY THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 07S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT VARYING IMPACTS OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#17
1st February 2018, 14:23
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 18-NM EYE AND DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WOBBLING MOTION IN THE EYE FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 011108Z AMSU-B PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO ERRATIC MOTION AND THE LIKELY TILTED VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STEERING INFLUENCES: ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU 120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#18
1st February 2018, 21:19
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH MORE RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1703 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.8 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE AT 200MB AND HIGH SST VALUES. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST RECEDES TO THE WEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION AND DRIVE TC 07S TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE NER. AFTER TAU 72 THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF TC 07S, LEADING TO A DECREASE IN STORM MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING. BEYOND TAU 12 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE DISSIPATES AND IS REPLACED BY GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY AROUND TAU 120, HOWEVER NEW DATA INDICATES THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY. NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER STR, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING IT OFF FROM THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, ALLOWING TC 07S TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITING OVER COOLER WATERS AT THIS POINT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER VICE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#19
2nd February 2018, 07:37
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH THE PREVIOUS RAGGED EYE BECOMING VERY CLEAR AND INCREASING IN SIZE TO 55 NM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 020021Z GPM 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CLEAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 113 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM REACHES LOCAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHILE TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28 DEG C) AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S HAS BEGUN ITS POLEWARD TURN AND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BEYOND TAU 24 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH DECREASING SSTS. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE EUROPEAN MODELS AND CTCX REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, WITH HWRF BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER, 470NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#20
2nd February 2018, 10:48
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29 DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#21
2nd February 2018, 17:28
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 75.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 75.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.1S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.9S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.7S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.5S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 26.1S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.4S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 75.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 35-NM RAGGED EYE EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO SLOWLY UNRAVEL AND DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 021057Z AMSU-B PASS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MSI EYE POSITION THAT IS TILTED WESTWARD FROM THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.4 TO T6.0 AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE STILL WARM AT 28-29 DEG C. TC 07S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE NER BUILDS AND EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING AND OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#22
2nd February 2018, 21:59
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 76.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 76.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.5S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.3S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.2S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.4S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.1S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.3S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 28.5S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 76.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 681 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 021642Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND A 27 NM EYE, LIKELY RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24. LOW, BUT INCREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD ENABLE TC 07S TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A STEADIER WEAKENING TREND. THE CURRENT FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 AS NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. DESPITE SOME SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#23
3rd February 2018, 07:22
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 76.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.7S 77.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.6S 78.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.6S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.9S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 24.4S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 26.6S 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 28.5S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 76.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 022331Z GMI IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO THE SOUTH AND SPINS DOWN SLOWLY. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES, NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#24
3rd February 2018, 22:23
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.2S 79.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.3S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.9S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 28.3S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 78.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CORE CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A 031621Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER, AS WELL AS A 031544Z OSCAT CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FALLING DATA-T NUMBERS. THE MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE IS 75 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUTS TO UPDATE THE WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CEBILE IS NEARLY UNDER A POINT SOURCE, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUB- TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DISSIPATION, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND NOTING THE RAPID DISSIPATION INDICATED BY SHIPS DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOT) VWS AND COLD SSTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z, AND 042100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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#25
4th February 2018, 07:07
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 79.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 79.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 22.3S 80.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 23.7S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.1S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 27.3S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 28.0S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 79.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTER THAT IS DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 032159Z INDICATES A SHARP WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040023Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY T4.0 (65 KNOTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE NOTED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE OUTFLOW HAS RELAXED, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE OVER 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. THERE IS A SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES FROM GFS, NAVGEM, AND HWRF ALL INDICATE 30-40 KNOT VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ALONG TRACK WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE RAPID DISSIPATION SCENARIO INDICATED BY SHIPS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif
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David |
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