Ockhi - Pakistan

pompeyfan · #1 30th November 2017, 11:27

WTIO31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 7.5N 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 77.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 8.3N 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 9.0N 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.7N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.6N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.8N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.7N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.6N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 76.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 922 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 03B. THE PREVIOUSLY-OBSERVED DOUBLE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMA HAS EVOLVED INTO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KNOTS ACCORDING TO A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAKS RANGING FROM T2.5 AND
T3.0. TS 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER TS 03B (10 TO 15
KNOTS), SO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS ACROSS A BAND OF EXTREMELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 DEGREES C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
BEYOND TAU 72, TS 03B IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA. THE INTENSITY OF TS 03B SHOULD PEAK AROUND
TAU 96, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH
THE TROUGH INTERACTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF, WHICH IS A
FAR WESTERN OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.

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pompeyfan · #2 30th November 2017, 18:15

WTIO31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 8.4N 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 9.1N 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.8N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.6N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.7N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.3N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.4N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 75.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 48 TO TAU 72). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 301319Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE DEPICTS A THICK CYAN RING
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND ALSO SIGNALS AN IMMINENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC OCKHI WILL RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48
BUT WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE, ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST
INDIA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.

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pompeyfan · #3 1st December 2017, 07:35

WTIO31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.4N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.3N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.2N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.3N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.9N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 73.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 03B HAS NOT INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING APPROXIMATELY
THE SAME STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING THE 302310Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES,
BOTH OF WHICH SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS, WITH THE SAME SPLIT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (KNES) AND T3.5 (PGTW). THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FOR TC 03B REMAINS THE SAME, WITH A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72 WHEN
A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES C, WITH TC 03B REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS FROM TAU 48 TO 72. STEADY WEAKENING AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THEREAFTER. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z,
012100Z AND 020300Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #4 1st December 2017, 17:24

WTIO31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 9.8N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.9N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.4N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.1N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.7N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.6N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.6N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03B HAS DECREASED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 010842Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). HOWEVER,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 03B
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. TC
03B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48 TC
03B WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. TC 03B WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #5 2nd December 2017, 07:31

WTIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 10.2N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 11.3N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.9N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.4N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.8N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 959 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A 21NM EYE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH THE INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 012257Z SSMSI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING
THE RELATIVELY LARGE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM PGTW HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
TC 03B LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS), BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR
REMAINS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, LEADING TO LOW RELATIVE
SHEAR VALUES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, AS THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A DIVERGENT PATTERN, PROVIDING OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEST,
AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER A BAND OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. TC 03B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. BY TAU 48, TC
03B WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, AS UPPER LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SMOTHERS THE OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN INDIA AS A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE FULLY DISSIPATING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, WITH
THE EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATING COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 WITH
THE REMNANTS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THE US MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AS A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT MOVED FURTHER LEFT IN
LIGHT OF THE POTENTIAL DISSIPATION SCENARIO. OVERALL THERE IS STILL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #6 2nd December 2017, 10:18

WTIO31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 9.9N 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.2N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.4N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.7N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.1N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.4N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1024 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A 15NM RAGGED EYE
FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE SYSTEM EYE AND A PARTIAL 020626Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A RING
OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A 020301Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
86 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM CENTER WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU
24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER
AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM
AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER.
TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND
030900Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #7 2nd December 2017, 18:57

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 10.6N 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.2N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.8N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.9N 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1069 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND FILLING IN THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 021115Z 89GHZ AMSU
IMAGE SHOWING RING OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO
102 KNOTS) AND A 021113Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN
THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B CONTINUES
TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA
JUST BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD
GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #8 3rd December 2017, 07:28

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.1N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.6N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.1N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.7N 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 797 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
A 022020Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT
IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 03B HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS TRACK INITIALLY TO THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 24
AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, NORTH
OF MUMBAI IN THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE AS VWS FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN TC OCKHI. INCREASING VWS
COMBINED WITH DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #9 3rd December 2017, 11:56

WTIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.5N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.9N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.5N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.6N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH
IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A 030506Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE
SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED ON THE EAST AND
WESTERN EDGES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF
COOL DRY AIR NEARLY ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 03B IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE WILL GUIDE TC 03B NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AROUND THE WESTWARD MOST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS LEADING TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE SURROUNDING COOLER DRY AIR
GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TC 03B SHOULD BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND DISSIPATES, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #10 3rd December 2017, 21:44

WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.7N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.4N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.1N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.8N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OCKHI IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 031657Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5, AND SUPPORTED BY BOTH
CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES.
ADDITIONALLY, A 031658Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUT TO THE ANALYZED
WIND RADII ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED
BY A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES HAVE REACHED AN UNFAVORABLY HIGH 25-30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH VALUES INCREASING TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATES DRIER
AIR IS BEGINNING TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. 03B IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES
AROUND THE WESTWARD MOST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER WATERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC 03B OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 03B
SHOULD BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST
COAST OF INDIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #11 4th December 2017, 07:20

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 68.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 68.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.3N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.8N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.5N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OCKHI IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 040120Z
F18 91GHZ PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, WITH DEEPEST
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE PGTW FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KNOTS
BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DATA-T VALUES WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO T4.0. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES, CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO
BE 25-30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
INDICATES DRIER AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO OCKHI. TC 03B IS
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, WITH THE 04/00Z
POSITION INDICATING MOTION HAS VEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
PRIOR POSIT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, INDICATING OCKHI WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AFTER TAU 48. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER WATERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC 03B OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING OCKHI WILL DISSIPATE
OVER WATER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR ONE
ADDITIONAL POSIT TO INDICATE THE APPROXIMATE LANDFALL POSITION OF
THE REMNANT LOW. BASED ON LOW MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #12 4th December 2017, 15:45

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 68.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 68.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.8N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH 37 AND 91
GHZ SSMIS IMAGES FROM 041122Z, SHOWING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
STRUGGLING TO KEEP TOGETHER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WHICH IS ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM DEMS AND PGTW, COMBINED
WITH A 041052Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AS THE ADVANCING
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A RESULT. A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING TC 03B ON A COURSE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN TC
03B WHILE OVER OPEN WATER. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH JUST AFTER TAU 36, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH ONLY
MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #13 4th December 2017, 22:03

WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.3N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC O3B. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A 041637Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WHICH
IS BASED ON A 041356Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS STEERING TC 03B
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ALSO HELP
TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND STEER TC 03B NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO
50 KNOTS) WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC
03B IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW 35 KNOTS JUST BEFORE TAU 30, WITH
THE REMNANT LOW MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT
AROUND TAU 30. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SOME MINOR SPREADING IN THE MODEL FIELDS AFTER
TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #14 5th December 2017, 07:23

WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2N 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) OF TC 03B. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 042233Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. STRONG WIND SHEAR
(30 TO 60 KNOTS) HAS DECOUPLED THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 042233Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON A
041356Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED BELOW A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 FROM KNES. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST, CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS STEERING TC
03B NORTHEASTWARD. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03B IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR TC 03B. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS
EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WITH THE REMNANT LOW MAKING LANDFALL
IN THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 30. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SOME MINOR
SPREADING IN THE MODEL TRACKS AFTER TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

pompeyfan · #15 5th December 2017, 15:17

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.2N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DECAYING, FULLY-EXPOSED, BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG (40-50 KNOTS)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03B IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). A 050424Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WARM
FRONTAL PATTERN NEAR MUMBAI WITH A REGION OF SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. THE 05/00Z MUMBAI
SOUNDING REVEALS A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION INDICATES
A BROADENING WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, SUPPORTING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
ASSESSMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE BUT IS BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A PGTW DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATE OF T3.5. TC 03B
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 16
FEET.

https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2

Dredger · #16 5th December 2017, 23:37

Cyclone Ockhi effect: Mumbai records highest December rain in 50 years.

MUMBAI: Owing to Cyclone Ockhi, the city recorded the highest-ever December rainfall on Tuesday, in just 12 hours. Rainfall during 8.30am-8.30pm at the IMD's Santacruz observatory was 36mm, which beat the previous record of 31.4mm, recorded on December 12, 1967.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/61939427.cms