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#1
3rd January 2018, 08:28
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Ava - Europa Island
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.8S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.4S 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 16.9S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.6S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.2S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.9S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.7S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 52.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 022324Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE EVIDENCES IMPROVED CORE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, TC 03S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD AND THE STR RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120. TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#2
3rd January 2018, 17:27
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WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 53.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 53.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.6S 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.0S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 17.4S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.1S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 20.6S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 26.1S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 53.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND IT. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A 031031Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OFTHE LLCC. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 030614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THAT SAME STR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC 03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MADAGASCAR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#3
4th January 2018, 08:31
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WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032309Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR MOVES EASTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD AS IT TRANSITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS BEING HWRF TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION HAS THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#4
4th January 2018, 21:12
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WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 18.3S 49.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 19.6S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 21.0S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 23.4S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 25.2S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 27.2S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 50.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041519Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTESITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC AVA TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, TRACKING DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE STR, NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION RELATED TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RIDGE MODIFICATIONS. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND JGSM WITH SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST A SHARP TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND A TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER FROM THE MADAGASCAR COAST. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#5
5th January 2018, 11:05
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WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 24.7S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 26.9S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 28.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO AN ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WAS PREVIOUSLY STEERING 03S ON COURSE DUE WEST, BUT WITH THE RECENT SHIFT EASTWARD TC 03S IS NOW TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STR MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TC 03S TO A SOUTHWARD COURSE BY TAU 36. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS BUT DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 25 DEGREES SOUTH. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 03S SUSTAINED AT AROUND 80 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO 72. BEYOND TAU 72 COOLER WATERS WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S' TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#6
5th January 2018, 19:58
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 20.4S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.9S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.5S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 27.2S 47.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 28.9S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 49.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND NOW OVER LAND NEAR TAMATAVE, MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RECENT LAND INTERACTION. OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY TAMATAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 83 KNOTS WHEN CORRECTED FOR ONE MINUTE AVERAGE, AND A MINIMUM STATION PRESSURE OF 965 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST AND STEER TC 03S SOUTHWARD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR REEMERGING OVER OPEN WATER AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY TO 65 KNOTS, AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE THIS INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS TC 03S TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A REGION OF COOLER WATERS, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOWING A POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#7
6th January 2018, 08:49
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 22.5S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 23.7S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 24.9S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 27.0S 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 29.2S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 47.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 060530Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#8
6th January 2018, 20:05
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 47.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 47.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 21.9S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.2S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.3S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.3S 47.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 27.4S 46.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 28.6S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 28.4S 52.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 47.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 061200Z METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TC 03S EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#9
7th January 2018, 08:37
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 22.4S 48.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 48.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.4S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.6S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.8S 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.7S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 28.6S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 28.5S 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 48.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC AVA IS NOW STRADDLING THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 070003Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CONSEQUENTLY, TC 03S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER WATER. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. PROXIMITY TO MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, TC 03S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03S WILL LIKELY SLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#10
7th January 2018, 20:51
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 26.7S 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 28.2S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 30.3S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 32.6S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 49.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 070634Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS. TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BEGINNING AT TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. TC 03S WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48 WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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#11
8th January 2018, 09:39
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 49.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 49.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 26.7S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 30.3S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 32.9S 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 38.8S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080426Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. BASED ON IMPROVING CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 080614Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#12
8th January 2018, 20:55
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 48.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 48.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 28.3S 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 30.0S 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 32.5S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 35.6S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 41.9S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 48.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 081222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS AND A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#13
9th January 2018, 07:28
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 34.9S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 39.4S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 47.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND A 082241Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 081838Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE THAT MISSED THE LLCC BUT CAPTURED AN EXPANSIVE 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 03S HAS LOOPED TO THE NORTH, AROUND ON ITS OWN TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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#14
9th January 2018, 21:48
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Final Warning
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090322Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN AMBIGUOUS LLCC WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALL OTHER DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE BOTH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS), BUT BELOW A 090413Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. A 090554Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE 25 KT WIND FIELD, WITH SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 160 NM FROM THE CENTER POSITION, AT THE INBOARD EDGE OF THE PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 03S HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTH, AND COMPLETED A SMALL LOOP OVER ITS TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif
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David |
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