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Linda - South Pacific
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 157.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 157.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.5S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.0S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.4S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 156.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132016Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) T3.0 (45 KTS), WHICH ARE BELOW A 131948Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT HAS AMPLIFIED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13P IS TRACKING OVER WARM BUT DIMINISHING SSTS (27 TO 28C) AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BRINGING DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE AND LEADING TO THE DISSOLUTION OF ALL EVIDENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CYCLONE. TC 13P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN TURN SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 13P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, AND DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE HEDGED SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET SLOWER MOVING AND WESTWARD MOVING OUTLIERS THAT DO NOT CAPTURE THE SOUTHWARD TURN. OVERALL, JTWC HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AND DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01813_5day.gif
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David |
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Final Warning
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (LINDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 156.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 156.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.7S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 156.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, DECAYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A PARTIAL 141108Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW REGION OF 35 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (35 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 26C SST. THEREFORE, TC 13P WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JTWC HAS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01813_5day.gif
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David |
Closed Thread |
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