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Dorian - Atlantic Ocean

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  #1  
Old 2nd September 2019, 09:09
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Lightbulb Dorian - Atlantic Ocean

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49541485
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Old 2nd September 2019, 19:12
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 37
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc mon sep 02 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of florida to the flagler/volusia county line.

The storm surge watch has been extended northward along the georgia
coast to the savannah river.

The hurricane warning along the east coast of florida has been
extended northward to the flagler/volusia county line.

The hurricane watch has been extended northward to altamaha sound
georgia.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* lantana to the flagler/volusia county line

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to south of lantana
* flagler/volusia county line to the savannah river

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet to the flagler/volusia county line

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to jupiter inlet
* flagler/volusia county line to the altamaha sound georgia

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach to jupiter inlet

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* north of golden beach to deerfield beach
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the united states
should continue to monitor the progress of dorian...as additional
watches may be required later today.

Hurricane center located near 26.8n 78.3w at 02/1500z
position accurate within 10 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 1 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 922 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt....... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt.......120ne 110se 80sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 120se 90sw 210nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.8n 78.3w at 02/1500z
at 02/1200z center was located near 26.7n 78.2w

forecast valid 03/0000z 26.9n 78.7w
max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 27.2n 79.1w
max wind 125 kt...gusts 150 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 28.1n 79.6w
max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.3n 80.2w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 80sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 32.0n 79.4w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...140ne 150se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 06/1200z 35.4n 75.1w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 07/1200z 40.7n 66.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.8n 78.3w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 02/1800z

next advisory at 02/2100z
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  #3  
Old 3rd September 2019, 08:02
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 39...corrected
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc tue sep 03 2019

correction to changes in watches and warnings and the storm surge
watch and warning area

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward from altamaha
sound to the savannah river.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* lantana fl to savannah river

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to south of lantana fl
* savannah river to south santee river sc

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to south santee river sc

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* north of golden beach fl to deerfield beach fl
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the southeast and
mid-atlantic coast of the united states should continue to monitor
the progress of dorian...as additional watches may be required
tonight and tuesday.

Hurricane center located near 26.9n 78.5w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 10 nm

present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 0 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 946 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 30se 25sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt.......130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 90se 120sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.9n 78.5w at 03/0300z
at 03/0000z center was located near 26.8n 78.4w

forecast valid 03/1200z 27.1n 78.7w
max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 27.9n 79.1w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.2n 79.7w
max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 90sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.6n 79.7w
max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 33.7n 77.3w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...170ne 170se 130sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 07/0000z 38.0n 71.0w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Outlook valid 08/0000z 45.4n 61.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.9n 78.5w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 03/0600z

next advisory at 03/0900z
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Old 3rd September 2019, 16:50
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Batten down the hatches and secure the ship for heavy rolling.
  #5  
Old 3rd September 2019, 19:39
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Strange beast is this one
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Dorian.jpg (165.2 KB, 7 views)
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  #6  
Old 3rd September 2019, 21:05
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 41
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc tue sep 03 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge warning has been extended northward to south santee
river south carolina.

The storm surge watch has been extended northward to cape
lookout north carolina.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the coast of south carolina
from north of edisto beach to the south santee river.

A hurricane watch has been issued from north of south santee river
to duck north carolina including the pamlico and albemarle sounds.

The tropical storm warning has been extended north to edisto
beach south carolina.

The storm surge warning has been discontinued south of jupiter
inlet florida.

The storm surge watch has been discontinued south of lantana florida
has been discontinued.

The hurricane watch from deerfield beach to jupiter inlet has
been discontinued.

The tropical storm watch from golden beach to deerfield beach has
been discontinued.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* jupiter inlet fl to south santee river sc

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of south santee river sc to cape lookout nc

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* jupiter inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl
* north of edisto beach sc to south santee river sc

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to edisto beach sc
* north of south santee river sc to duck nc
* albemarle and pamlico sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of deerfield beach fl to jupiter inlet fl
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to edisto beach sc

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* lake okeechobee

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For
a depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather
service storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-atlantic coasts of
the united states should continue to monitor the progress of
dorian...as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

Hurricane center located near 27.1n 78.6w at 03/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 2 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 955 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 40se 25sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt.......150ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 120se 100sw 270nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.1n 78.6w at 03/1500z
at 03/1200z center was located near 27.1n 78.4w

forecast valid 04/0000z 27.9n 79.0w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 90sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 29.2n 79.4w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 45se 30sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 90sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.7n 79.8w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 32.1n 79.2w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 35.3n 75.0w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 140sw 120nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 07/1200z 40.5n 66.5w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 08/1200z 48.0n 57.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.1n 78.6w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 03/1800z

next advisory at 03/2100z
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Old 4th September 2019, 07:59
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 43
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc wed sep 04 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The storm surge watch has been extended northward from
duck nc to poquoson va...including hampton roads.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* jupiter inlet fl to surf city nc

a storm surge watch is in effect for...
* north of surf city nc to poquoson va...including hampton roads
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* sebastian inlet fl to ponte vedra beach fl
* north of savannah river to surf city nc

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to savannah river
* north of surf city nc to the north carolina/virginia border
* albemarle and pamlico sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* grand bahama and the abacos islands in the northwestern bahamas
* north of ponte vedra beach fl to savannah river
* jupiter inlet fl to sebastian inlet fl

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the north carolina/virginia border to chincoteague va
* chesapeake bay from smith point southward

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction
of areas at risk...please see the national weather service storm
surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic coast of the united
states should continue to monitor the progress of dorian...as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
wednesday.

Hurricane center located near 28.4n 79.0w at 04/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 959 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 40se 30sw 50nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 70se 50sw 90nw.
34 kt.......150ne 130se 100sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..240ne 150se 120sw 240nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.4n 79.0w at 04/0300z
at 04/0000z center was located near 28.1n 78.8w

forecast valid 04/1200z 29.4n 79.6w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 90ne 70se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 30.7n 79.9w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 80nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 100sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 31.9n 79.5w
max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 110sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 33.3n 78.2w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 160se 120sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 37.1n 72.1w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 80sw 70nw.
34 kt...200ne 200se 140sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 08/0000z 43.3n 62.7w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 09/0000z 51.5n 52.2w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.4n 79.0w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 04/0600z

next advisory at 04/0900z
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  #8  
Old 4th September 2019, 10:02
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Thanks David.
Our daughter was in Charleston until yesterday so very interesting and something of a geography lesson for me too.
Geoff (YM)
  #9  
Old 4th September 2019, 19:54
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 45A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...

CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM JACKSONVILLE

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A Weatherflow station at Huguenot Park, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia
coast, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a
wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning
area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by
late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to
4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
__________________
David

Last edited by pompeyfan; 4th September 2019 at 19:58.
  #10  
Old 4th September 2019, 19:59
Engine Serang Europe Engine Serang is offline
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  #11  
Old 5th September 2019, 07:55
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGES ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast
tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will continue to approach the coast of South Carolina this morning,
move near or over the coast of South Carolina later today, and then
move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust
to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Winyah Bay, South
Carolina.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 957
mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North
Carolina later this morning, with hurricane conditions beginning
later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through today
across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
__________________
David
  #12  
Old 5th September 2019, 21:41
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 49
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc thu sep 05 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been extended northward to fenwick
island delaware...and also extended northward in the chesapeake
bay to drum point...including the tidal potomac river south of cobb
island.

The storm surge warning has been discontinued south of edisto
beach south carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* edisto beach sc to poquoson va
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers
* hampton roads

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* savannah river to the north carolina/virginia border
* pamlico and albemarle sounds

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north carolina/virginia border to fenwick island de
* chesapeake bay from drum point southward
* tidal potomac south of cobb island
* altamaha sound ga to savannah river

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the coastline...
During the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather service
storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states...and atlantic canada...should continue to monitor
the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 32.5n 79.1w at 05/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 20 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 958 mb
eye diameter 40 nm
max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt.......170ne 150se 90sw 90nw.
12 ft seas..270ne 270se 150sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 32.5n 79.1w at 05/1500z
at 05/1200z center was located near 32.1n 79.2w

forecast valid 06/0000z 33.5n 78.0w
max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 50nw.
34 kt...170ne 150se 90sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 35.1n 75.8w
max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 160se 110sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 37.2n 72.4w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 170se 120sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 40.1n 68.0w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 180se 150sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 48.0n 59.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 80sw 80nw.
34 kt...270ne 270se 200sw 180nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1200z 54.5n 48.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1200z 59.5n 32.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.5n 79.1w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 05/1800z

next advisory at 05/2100z
__________________
David
  #13  
Old 6th September 2019, 07:39
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 51
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc fri sep 06 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The canadian hurricane center has issued a hurricane watch for
all of nova scotia...a tropical storm watch for prince edward island
and for magdalen islands...and for new brunswick from fundy national
park to shediac. Also a tropical storm watch was issued for
newfoundland from francois to boat harbour.

The tropical storm warning south of south santee river has been
discontinued.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* cape fear to poquoson va
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers
* hampton roads

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* south santee river to the north carolina/virginia border
* pamlico and albemarle sounds

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* nova scotia

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north carolina/virginia border to fenwick island de
* chesapeake bay from drum point southward
* tidal potomac south of cobb island
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands
* fundy national park to shediac.
* francois to boat harbour.

A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the
coastline...during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction
of areas at risk...please see the national weather service storm
surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states...and atlantic canada...should continue to monitor
the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 33.8n 77.4w at 06/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 958 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 90se 80sw 60nw.
34 kt.......170ne 190se 130sw 80nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 300se 270sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 33.8n 77.4w at 06/0300z
at 06/0000z center was located near 33.4n 77.9w

forecast valid 06/1200z 35.0n 75.8w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 190se 130sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 37.2n 72.2w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 50se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 190se 130sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 40.2n 67.7w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 60se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 250se 200sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 44.5n 63.0w
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 50sw 40nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 250se 200sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 52.5n 55.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...270ne 270se 200sw 180nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 10/0000z 57.5n 40.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 11/0000z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 33.8n 77.4w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 06/0600z

next advisory at 06/0900z
__________________
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  #14  
Old 6th September 2019, 22:25
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 53
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc fri sep 06 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

A tropical storm warning is now in effect east of bar
harbor maine...to eastport maine.

The hurricane warning has been discontinued west of bogue
inlet north carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A storm surge warning is in effect for...
* salter path nc to poquoson va
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* neuse and pamlico rivers
* hampton roads

a hurricane warning is in effect for...
* bogue inlet to the north carolina/virginia border
* pamlico and albemarle sounds

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* nova scotia

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north carolina/virginia border to fenwick island de
* chesapeake bay from drum point southward
* tidal potomac south of cobb island
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma
* east of bar harbor to eastport me

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands
* fundy national park to shediac
* francois to boat harbour

a storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation...from rising water moving inland from the coastline...
During the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk...please see the national weather service
storm surge watch/warning graphic...available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states should monitor the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 35.7n 74.8w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 15 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 957 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 40se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 80se 70sw 70nw.
34 kt.......170ne 190se 140sw 110nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 400se 270sw 50nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 35.7n 74.8w at 06/1500z
at 06/1200z center was located near 35.1n 75.7w

forecast valid 07/0000z 37.4n 72.2w
max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 40se 40sw 30nw.
50 kt... 80ne 90se 80sw 70nw.
34 kt...180ne 200se 140sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 40.7n 67.7w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 50se 50sw 30nw.
50 kt...100ne 100se 90sw 80nw.
34 kt...200ne 220se 150sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 44.9n 63.5w...inland
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 50se 50sw 0nw.
50 kt...120ne 120se 110sw 100nw.
34 kt...220ne 240se 180sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 48.8n 60.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 100nw.
34 kt...240ne 240se 240sw 170nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 54.5n 48.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...270ne 270se 270sw 240nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 10/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 35.7n 74.8w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 06/1800z

next advisory at 06/2100z
__________________
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  #15  
Old 7th September 2019, 07:39
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Exclamation Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane dorian forecast/advisory number 55
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc sat sep 07 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The canadian hurricane center has adjusted the warnings for nova
scotia and new brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect
from lower east pubnico eastward around nova scotia to
avonport...and the tropical storm warning is effect from tidnish to
brule and from fundy national park to shediac.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* eastern nova scotia from lower east pubnico to avonport

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* southwestern nova scotia from avonport to north of lower east
pubnico.
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands
* southwestern newfoundland from parson's pond to indian
harbour

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* woods hole to sagamore beach ma
* nantucket and martha's vineyard ma
* east of bar harbor to eastport me
* prince edward island
* southwestern nova scotia from avonport to north of lower east
pubnico
* fundy national park to shediac

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* parson's pond to triton
* indian harbour to stone's cove

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the mid-atlantic and new england coasts of
the united states should monitor the progress of dorian.

Hurricane center located near 38.3n 70.2w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 22 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 960 mb
max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 40se 40sw 70nw.
50 kt.......100ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
34 kt.......200ne 200se 160sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..240ne 400se 300sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 38.3n 70.2w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 37.5n 71.2w

forecast valid 07/1200z 40.8n 66.9w
max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 30nw.
50 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 90nw.
34 kt...200ne 200se 160sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 45.0n 63.0w...inland
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 30se 30sw 0nw.
50 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 80nw.
34 kt...350ne 270se 180sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 49.0n 59.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 100se 70sw 60nw.
34 kt...340ne 280se 240sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 52.0n 55.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...200ne 220se 200sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 56.0n 41.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 80ne 140se 100sw 200nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 175 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day

outlook valid 11/0000z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 38.3n 70.2w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 07/0600z

next advisory at 07/0900z
__________________
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  #16  
Old 7th September 2019, 22:27
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Exclamation Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

Post-tropical cyclone dorian forecast/advisory number 59
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
2100 utc sat sep 07 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* eastern nova scotia from lower east pubnico to brule
* western newfoundland from indian harbour to hawke's bay

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* east of bar harbor to eastport me
* prince edward island
* southwestern nova scotia from avonport to north of lower east
pubnico
* fundy national park to shediac
* stone's cove to indian harbour
* hawke's bay to fogo island
* mutton bay to mary's harbour

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the new england coasts of the united
states should monitor the progress of dorian.

Post-tropical cyclone center located near 43.9n 63.9w at 07/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 35 degrees at 26 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 953 mb
max sustained winds 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
64 kt....... 0ne 100se 90sw 0nw.
50 kt.......170ne 150se 100sw 90nw.
34 kt.......270ne 240se 210sw 170nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 600se 720sw 240nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 43.9n 63.9w at 07/2100z
at 07/1800z center was located near 42.8n 64.6w

forecast valid 08/0600z 47.0n 61.1w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 90se 90sw 0nw.
50 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 90nw.
34 kt...300ne 240se 210sw 170nw.

Forecast valid 08/1800z 50.2n 56.9w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt...150ne 120se 100sw 80nw.
34 kt...350ne 270se 240sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 09/0600z 53.0n 50.9w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 90se 90sw 0nw.
34 kt...300ne 240se 240sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 09/1800z 55.4n 43.7w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...180ne 210se 180sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 43.9n 63.9w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 08/0000z

next advisory at 08/0300z
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David
  #17  
Old 8th September 2019, 07:14
Engine Serang Europe Engine Serang is offline
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Often these storms that skirt the East coast of US/Canada end up crossing the Atlantic and we get what is commonly known as the "Tail End" which can be quite unpleasant. Hope Dorian gives us a miss.
  #18  
Old 8th September 2019, 09:02
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Exclamation Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

Post-tropical cyclone dorian forecast/advisory number 60
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
0300 utc sun sep 08 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* eastern nova scotia from lower east pubnico to brule
* western newfoundland from indian harbour to hawke's bay

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* magdalen islands

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* prince edward island
* southwestern nova scotia from avonport to north of lower east
pubnico
* fundy national park to shediac
* stone's cove to indian harbour
* hawke's bay to fogo island
* mutton bay to mary's harbour
* magdalen islands

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next few
hours.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Post-tropical cyclone center located near 46.3n 62.1w at 08/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 30 degrees at 23 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 960 mb
max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 0ne 100se 75sw 0nw.
50 kt.......140ne 150se 100sw 100nw.
34 kt.......270ne 240se 210sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..320ne 600se 660sw 240nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 46.3n 62.1w at 08/0300z
at 08/0000z center was located near 45.2n 62.9w

forecast valid 08/1200z 49.0n 60.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 0ne 90se 90sw 0nw.
50 kt...140ne 170se 120sw 100nw.
34 kt...330ne 300se 240sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 52.0n 54.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt...100ne 110se 90sw 60nw.
34 kt...320ne 330se 360sw 210nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 54.5n 48.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...300ne 300se 300sw 180nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 56.0n 41.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...120ne 300se 300sw 200nw.

Forecast valid 11/0000z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 46.3n 62.1w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 08/0600z

next advisory at 08/0900z
__________________
David
  #19  
Old 8th September 2019, 17:31
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Exclamation Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

Post-tropical cyclone dorian forecast/advisory number 62
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
1500 utc sun sep 08 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The canadian hurricane center has discontinued the hurricane
warning for nova scotia. The canadian hurricane center has also
discontinued the tropical storm warning and the hurricane watch for
the magdalen islands and the tropical storm warning for prince
edward island.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A hurricane warning is in effect for...
* western newfoundland from indian harbour to hawke's bay

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* stone's cove to indian harbour
* hawke's bay to fogo island
* mutton bay to mary's harbour

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

Post-tropical cyclone center located near 50.0n 59.4w at 08/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 35 degrees at 22 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 963 mb
max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 0ne 80se 80sw 0nw.
50 kt.......140ne 150se 100sw 100nw.
34 kt.......300ne 300se 210sw 160nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 900se 780sw 220nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 50.0n 59.4w at 08/1500z
at 08/1200z center was located near 49.4n 60.4w

forecast valid 09/0000z 52.3n 55.6w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 120se 60sw 0nw.
34 kt...390ne 360se 300sw 240nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 54.7n 49.2w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 90se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...390ne 360se 360sw 300nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 56.2n 41.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...300ne 360se 360sw 300nw.

Forecast valid 10/1200z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 50.0n 59.4w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 08/1800z

next advisory at 08/2100z
__________________
David
  #20  
Old 8th September 2019, 21:57
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Exclamation Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

Post-tropical cyclone dorian forecast/advisory number 63
nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019
2100 utc sun sep 08 2019

changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...

The canadian hurricane center has changed the hurricane warning to
a tropical storm warning for the west coast of newfoundland...and
has discontinued all warnings for newfoundland south of cape
anguille.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* cape anguille to fogo island
* mutton bay to mary's harbour

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

Post-tropical cyclone center located near 51.0n 57.5w at 08/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 50 degrees at 20 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 968 mb
max sustained winds 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt.
50 kt....... 0ne 90se 90sw 0nw.
34 kt.......300ne 310se 210sw 80nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 900se 780sw 220nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 51.0n 57.5w at 08/2100z
at 08/1800z center was located near 50.6n 58.5w

forecast valid 09/0600z 53.2n 52.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 0se 90sw 0nw.
34 kt...390ne 390se 300sw 240nw.

Forecast valid 09/1800z 55.2n 45.6w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...420ne 420se 360sw 300nw.

Forecast valid 10/0600z 56.8n 37.9w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...300ne 360se 360sw 300nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 51.0n 57.5w

intermediate public advisory...wtnt35 knhc/miatcpat5...at 09/0000z

next advisory at 09/0300z
__________________
David
  #21  
Old 9th September 2019, 07:32
pompeyfan's Avatar
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Exclamation Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

Post-tropical cyclone dorian forecast/advisory number 64

nws national hurricane center miami fl al052019

0300 utc mon sep 09 2019



changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...



The canadian hurricane center has discontinued all tropical cyclone

warnings for atlantic canada.



Summary of watches and warnings in effect...



There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Post-tropical cyclone center located near 52.1n 53.4w at 09/0300z

position accurate within 30 nm



present movement toward the east-northeast or 60 degrees at 21 kt



estimated minimum central pressure 980 mb

max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.

50 kt....... 0ne 90se 60sw 0nw.

34 kt.......360ne 330se 180sw 120nw.

12 ft seas..360ne 840se 720sw 270nw.

Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical

miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.



Repeat...center located near 52.1n 53.4w at 09/0300z

at 09/0000z center was located near 51.6n 54.8w



forecast valid 09/1200z 53.6n 48.8w...post-trop/extratrop

max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

34 kt...420ne 390se 300sw 240nw.



Forecast valid 10/0000z 55.1n 41.5w...post-trop/extratrop

max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

34 kt...420ne 360se 360sw 240nw.



Forecast valid 10/1200z 56.6n 31.6w...post-trop/extratrop

max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

34 kt...300ne 360se 360sw 300nw.



Forecast valid 11/0000z...dissipated



request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 52.1n 53.4w



this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the national hurricane

center on this system. Additional information on this system can be

found in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather

service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc.
__________________
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