#1
|
||||
|
||||
![]()
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.6S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.1S 176.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.7S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 26.3S 175.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 39.0S 167.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 172.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 082201Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF FIJI BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION SLIGHTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24, HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 177.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 177.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.5S 179.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.5S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.7S 171.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 45 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 40.4S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 315 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 092140Z METOP-B 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65-77 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LESS ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC KENI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING UPSTREAM. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AROUND TAU 24 TC 19P WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
#4
|
||||
|
||||
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.2S 174.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.1S 170.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 37 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 38.2S 167.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 375 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 177.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P NO LONGER HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 101011Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS TC 19P RAPIDLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
#5
|
||||
|
||||
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 174.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 27 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 174.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 31.4S 170.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 41 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 39.4S 168.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 173.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. A 102121Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER DUE TO A 102119Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT VWS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 35 KNOTS) AS TC 19P BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW MARGINAL (25C) AND WILL STEADILY DROP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS TC 19P RAPIDLY ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID SPIN DOWN. TC 19P IS EXHIBITING CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS A COLD CORE SYSTEM WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS BY TAU 24. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
Final Warning
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 27.7S 172.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 172.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 35.0S 169.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 172.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING AND ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION AS TC 19P BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN 110551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19P IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE, NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01819_5day.gif
__________________
David |
Closed Thread |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Josie - South Pacific | pompeyfan | Weather Watch | 5 | 3rd April 2018 07:57 |
Nora - South Pacific | pompeyfan | Weather Watch | 7 | 25th March 2018 07:21 |
Marcus - South Pacific | pompeyfan | Weather Watch | 19 | 24th March 2018 18:20 |
Linda - South Pacific | pompeyfan | Weather Watch | 1 | 14th March 2018 17:48 |
Gita - South Pacific | pompeyfan | Weather Watch | 29 | 20th February 2018 08:12 |